TUESDAY THOUGHT'S ** 1 5 1 **

[one51rum]

well the 1st game of the day Davidson vs Fordham, one thing to mention here this is a home game for Fordham, maybe not at their exact court, but they are playing just 14 miles from home while Davidson is traveling 517 miles to play this game, so most likely going to be a home court for Fordham, now Davidson has won both meetings this year, the one that was at Fordham they won by 10 points 79-69 in a game where Fordham out rebounded them and had 16 offensive rebounds which lead to 9 extra shots, both teams made 23 shots in that game, Davidson was 23/57 6/12 from 3 Fordham was 23/66 and 7/27 from 3 what really hurt Fordham was 2 things, they did not shoot very well, just 35% and 26% from 3, but another thing again was the ft's, as Fordham was 16/19 84% and Davidson was 27/34 79% again getting 15 more attempts at the line and making 11 more and winning by 10, also Davidson has been without their best scorer well close to best scorer by fractions but he is their best D.Skogman who averaged 25 mins a game, 13.5 pts a game, 5 reb's he got hurt on the 8th of Feb and they are 2-7 without him, also on that night in that game Fordham's one top scorer only played 8 mins for some reason and their other top scorer had a off night also, Fordham really spreads their scoring around, and even in the 2nd game at Davidson where they won by 15 again Fordham took 7 more shots had 6 more offensive rebounds, and took 8 fewer ft's making 7 less , I am going to take the home team here, being close to home hopefully helps, shoot just a little bit better and they could win I think, they should rebound well, and should get extra shots, and try to keep the ft's about even they should hold their own here, they do take about 10 more 3's a game than Davidson, hopefully they make a few more, they both have made about the same in each game, also this is tourney time, beating a team for a 3rd time is hard I am on them here ,and I do think this line could drop a half pt .... then I went and looked for maybe some trends to help support my play and found a few

Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss...Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall....Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5....
Rams are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games....Rams are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as an underdog....Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
clearly while looking through these trends Davidson is better as a dog, and Fordham is terrible as a favorite

FORDHAM+4 -112 1 unit

Ticket Number:767644279
Accepted Date:3/12/24
Amount:$112.00
Status Pending
To win:$100.00
Type:Spread
Description:Basketball - NCAA - Davidson vs Fordham - Spread | 602 Fordham +4 -112 for GAME | 03/12/2024 11:30:00 AM (EST) | Pending
Atlantic 10 Conference - First Round - Barclays Center - Brooklyn, NY.

 

[one51rum]

Oklahoma st vs UCF these 2 played just once this year, UCF won 77-71 at Okla st, this game also had a lot of foul shots, each team scored about 45% of their points at the foul line, both teams took the same amount of shots as Okla st was 21/52 and 5/20 from 3 and they were 24/30 at the foul line, UCF was 22/52 6/16 from 3 and were 27/36 at the line , Okla st was up 42-38 at half time....UCF had twice as many offensive rebounds as they had 14 to just 7 for Okla st, UCF 40 total rebounds to 27 for Okla st , and again Okla st has lost their 2nd best scorer in Bryce Thompson back on Feb 8th, 28 mins 12 pts a game, they have lost their last 5 in a row, and UCF has won 3 of last 5 with the 2 losses being to maybe the best teams in their conf, Houston and Iowa st, they are coming off a road win at TCU, and they have won their last 2 road games, now this is neutral but maybe you see my point, they did win at Texas this year also, and lost by 2 at BYU this year...they should control the boards again here in this game, UCF is 2-0 STR up this year on a neutral court, I am laying the 4 here I do have a feeling this goes up also

UCF-4

Confirmation: 3962924​

Date Placed: 03/12/24 02:17:07
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 165.00 win 150.00
Bet Details:

1. BIG 12 CONFERENCE - First Round 608 Central Florida -4 (-110) risk 165.00 win 150.00 (NCAA Men)

almost made Fordham a 1.5 unit play also when I do write ups I do like all my plays the same if I really like something they will be 2 units

 

[one51rum]

Ga Tech vs N.Dame this game is in Washington DC
During the year ND won both games , they won at home 58-55 and won in OT at GT 75-68 in both games ND had a big edge in rebounds....
at GT ND won in OT 75-68 in a game where GT took 11 more shots, as they were 27/72 11/35 from 3 and just 3/7 at the ft line...ND had 48 reb's 13 offensive and 11 assist and 16 to's not a very good assist to turnover ratio at all...ND shot 24/61 8/24 from 3 and were 19/21 at the line so again game goes to OT so Tech had a good chance at winning but when you take just 7 ft's and make 3 and the other team takes 21 and makes 19 you better shoot over 50%, Tech had 33 reb's 20 assist and just 10 to's , that's a good assist to turnover ratio, they got out scored in OT 9-2

In the 2nd game at ND they lost by just 3 points 55-58 in a game where ND took 9 more shots then they did GT was 22/48 5/15 from 3 and were again just 6/11 at the ft line and ND shot just 18/57 and 5/26 from 3 and again 17/22 from the line ..again they took twice as many ft's and made 11 more and they won by 3 .... I am going to take G Tech here in this game and I am going to hope that the ft's are more even between these 2, I think if they can keep the ft's close to even they can win this game, they went to OT and lost by just 3 in games where ND took many more foul shots and made many more ...GT is 2-1 ats at a neutral court this year, 14-11 ats as a dog, and ND is 2-6 ats as a favorite this year...Both teams are doing well ats their last 5-6 games ND is 5-1 ats last 6 and GT is 5-2 ats last 7 ..but ND is 6-20 ats last 26 as a favorite


Ga Tech +1 1 unit

Ticket Number:767736675
Accepted Date:3/12/24
Amount:$110.00
Status Pending
To win:$100.00
Type:Spread
Description:Basketball - NCAA - Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame - Spread | 611 Georgia Tech +1 -110 for GAME | 03/12/2024 02:00:00 PM (EST) | Pending
Atlantic Coast Conference - First Round - Capital One Arena - Washington, DC

OK bedtime gl everyone

 

[poppers]

Good Luck Rum!!

 

[Mofome2]

Bol today bud

 

[maddog1987]

Hello 151, I have mentioned it before but want to tell you again that I appreciate your detailed research on the games you are betting. You are completely transparent on your units bets and the details of your wins and losses, which is very refreshing. Now I don't agree with everything (I took JMU yesterday) but what you provide is super useful on helping guys like me that does not have the time to handicap in depth as you do. My biggest benefit from your threads is being able to see reasons why I SHOULD NOT bet on some teams -- meaning you have saved me money on what have been losing bets.

Thanks for your work and best of luck to you as the tourney games kick into high gear today.

 

[one51rum]

Hello 151, I have mentioned it before but want to tell you again that I appreciate your detailed research on the games you are betting. You are completely transparent on your units bets and the details of your wins and losses, which is very refreshing. Now I don't agree with everything (I took JMU yesterday) but what you provide is super useful on helping guys like me that does not have the time to handicap in depth as you do. My biggest benefit from your threads is being able to see reasons why I SHOULD NOT bet on some teams -- meaning you have saved me money on what have been losing bets.

Thanks for your work and best of luck to you as the tourney games kick into high gear today.

exactly, well said I have always said at diff times , that I post my reasoning and all info I can, and not just stuff that supports my picks, and that some could even find reasons to go against me, and that is fine, that is what this is all about, each having their own opinion, I have always said, that after reading my capping some could go the other way, and I usually post that even though I break a game down does not mean it will win, there are so many things that happen in a game that determine who covers, little runs by a team, a team going 6-8 mins without scoring, and they all almost come down to ft's at the end...lol no matter how anyone breaks down a game , it still has a good chance to not cover we only hope that the game goes as we see it, they do not happen as much as we would like but when it does its a great feeling, Lamar game yesterday I thought I did well there, and the game went about as I saw it, about James Madison, to be honest to go against them is a tough call, they are a very good team, and when 1st looking they were the obvious choice, I was just hoping Ark st could maybe keep it going, but was wrong,,, and I always invite peoples opinions what you should do is before the game starts, write back and point out reasons why you should go the other way, I invite all that, but before the game starts I am always trying to learn even after 45 years...ps on the James Madison game I did not give a write up on that game??? I gave a write up on one game yesterday Lamar and it went almost exact

 

[Mspeaks61]

151--love ue work and write ups sir! Davidson on the road , but absolutely OWNS Fordham with a 20-3 all record! (other source)! Davidson on 5 game Lstreak--Fordham on 3 game L streak- ur buddy pirate is on Davidson--the OL seems like best bet as total is 135 and they ave 139-143?

 

[msucurt]

151--love ue work and write ups sir! Davidson on the road , but absolutely OWNS Fordham with a 20-3 all record! (other source)! Davidson on 5 game Lstreak--Fordham on 3 game L streak- ur buddy pirate is on Davidson--the OL seems like best bet as total is 135 and they ave 139-143?

Where’s the ole pirate posting these days. I saw him on another forum but haven’t seen him there lately.

 

[one51rum]

went 2-2-1 yesterday as Gonzaga did cover

Where’s the ole pirate posting these days. I saw him on another forum but haven’t seen him there lately.

I have no idea I never knew him before this year, and have not heard anything about him since he left

 

[one51rum]

151--love ue work and write ups sir! Davidson on the road , but absolutely OWNS Fordham with a 20-3 all record! (other source)! Davidson on 5 game Lstreak--Fordham on 3 game L streak- ur buddy pirate is on Davidson--the OL seems like best bet as total is 135 and they ave 139-143?

I know that , I tried to point out why I thought Davidson won those games or why Fordham lost those games, and like I said am hoping Fordham can change some things to play better this time ....I see many on the UNDER 1st half I kind of like Fordham 1st half too...also like that this game is just about a home game for Fordham also

Fordham +2 1st half small play

 

[one51rum]

Confirmation: 4177786501​

Date Placed: 03/12/24 11:36:18
Header:
Straight Bet risk 64.00 win 50.00
Bet Details:

1. Fordham Rams VS Davidson Wildcats - 1st Half - Spread Fordham Rams +2½ -128

had to get it live

 

[one51rum]

also going to go with Wisc-Milw+5 -120 both these teams have been playing well, but watching these games yesterday I think I was more impressed with Wisc-Milw and how they played simple reason gl 151

Confirmation: 3964766​

Date Placed: 03/12/24 11:38:39
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 120.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. HORIZON LEAGUE - Championship Game 623 Wisc Milwaukee +5 Buy ½ (-120) risk 120.00 win 100.00 (NCAA Men)

 

[one51rum]

Confirmation: 3964878​

Date Placed: 03/12/24 11:51:59
Header:
INTERNET: 3 Team 3T 7 Points Teaser(ties no action) risk 110.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. 610 Cincinnati -2½ (NCAA Men) (7.0 pts)
2. 618 Mount St Marys +3 (NCAA Men) (7.0 pts)
3. 633 Gonzaga +3½ (NCAA Men) (7.0 pts)

 

[one51rum]

if you like the over in the davidson game it is 120 LIVE right now that's almost 16 pts lower then what it was I guess

 

[maddog1987]

I want to add a comment to your response to my earlier post but first I want to say I am going with UCF over OKST (bought it down to -4).

 

[one51rum]

what a UGLY game between these 2 the UNDER 1st half was the BIGGGEST lock of the day so far wow

 

[one51rum]

what a UGLY game between these 2 the UNDER 1st half was the BIGGGEST lock of the day so far wow

things happen during a game to determine wins and losses some could be a team not scoring for the last 5 minutes of a half , and even though the other team only scored 5 points in 5 mins they still could not cover my thought on a game like this is we still have a half to go, they are down 8 getting 4 they did not score for last almost 5 minutes neither team is very good , losing by a half point or 5 points is still losing believe me I know that..lol

 

[one51rum]

well going with Montana st -5 over Sac st 1 unit

Confirmation: 3965475​

Date Placed: 03/12/24 12:34:45
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 110.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. BIG SKY CONFERENCE - Semifinal 628 Montana State -5 (-110) risk 110.00 win 100.00 (NCAA Men)

 

[one51rum]

Confirmation: 3965927​

Date Placed: 03/12/24 13:16:53
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 110.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE - First Round 615 H1 Miami Florida -1 (-110) risk 110.00 win 100.00 (NCAA Men 1st H)

think Miami gets out early here